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Game and Gambling ECS 315 Asst. Prof. Dr. Prapun Suksompong [email protected]

Introduction Office Hours: BKD 3601-7 Monday 14:00-16:00 Wednesday 14:40-16:00 2

Probability and Random Processes ECS 315 Asst. Prof. Dr. Prapun Suksompong [email protected]

Introduction Office Hours: BKD 3601-7 Monday 14:00-16:00 Wednesday 14:40-16:00 3

i Me? Ph.D. from Cornell University, USA

In Electrical and Computer Engineering Minor: Mathematics (Probability Theory) Ph.D. Research: Neuro-Information Theory

Current Research:

Wireless Communications 2009 and 2013 SIIT Best Teaching Awards 2011 SIIT Research Award 2013 TU Outstanding Young Researcher Award prapun.com 4

i Getting Info About This Course The syllabus contains tentative information. Announcements

I will announce in class and on the web site if there is any

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change. You are responsible for making sure that you obtain this information. Come to classes on time and listen carefully for announcement(s). For those who want a preview of the class materials, old slides along with the notes and HWs from earlier years are available on my web site (prapun.com).

Course Web Site prapun.com

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i Course Web Site Announcements References Handouts (Posted before corresponding

lectures) Slides (Posted after corresponding lectures) Calendar Exams

HW due dates

Please check the course website regularly. 7

www2.siit.tu.ac.th/prapun/ecs315/

i Course Website: Notes & Slides PDF notes will be posted before the corresponding lectures. Hard copies can also be purchased from the copy center.

In lectures… PDF notes will be highlighted and annotated with examples /

comments. Some lectures may use slides or MATLAB demo. The slides and annotated notes will be posted after the corresponding lectures.

I also frequently use Microsoft OneNote on my convertible

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tablet instead of the whiteboard. The files will be exported as pdf and posted after the corresponding lectures. Remind me the day after the lecture if the notes/slides from the day before are still not posted on the web.

i Course Organization Course Website:

http://www2.siit.tu.ac.th/prapun/ecs315/ Lectures: Tuesday 13:00-14:20 Thursday 13:00-14:20

BKD 2601 BKD 2601

Tutorial/make-up sessions: Thursday 14:40-16:00 BKD 2601 Textbook: Probability and stochastic processes: a friendly introduction for

electrical and computer engineers

By Roy D.Yates and David J. Goodman 2nd Edition ISBN 978-0-471-27214-4 Library Call No. QA273 Y384 2005 Student Companion Site: 9

http://bcs.wiley.com/he-bcs/Books?action=index&itemId=0471272140&bcsId=1991

Tutorial There are many parts of the class which we usually assumed that

you know from high school course(s).

Combinatorics (factorial, permutation, combination, etc.) Calculus.

In my experience, many students feel uncomfortable with these

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topics. In the beginning of the semester, the tutorial will be a review of these prerequisite topics. Of course, it is also a good time for asking question. Later, we start working on HW, old exam questions, and extra practice problems. After the midterm, those whose scores are below the median will be required to attend.

Course Outline

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1.

Introduction, Set Theory, Classical Probability

2.

Counting Methods and Combinatorics

3.

Probability Foundations

4.

Discrete Random Variable

5.

Real-Valued Functions of a Random Variable

6.

Expectation, Moment, Variance, Standard Deviation

7.

Multiple Random Variables

8.

MIDTERM: 7 Oct 2014 TIME 13:30 - 16:30

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Function of Multiple Random Variables

10.

Continuous Random Variables

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Mixed Random Variables

12.

Conditional Probability: Conditioning by a Random Variable

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Transform methods

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Limiting Theorems

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Random processes, Poisson Processes, Power spectral density

16.

FINAL: 16 Dec 2014 TIME 13:30 - 16:30

Probability 12

“Les questions les plus importantes de la vie ne sont en effet, pour la plupart, que des problèmes de probabilité.”

“The most important questions of life are, for the most part, really only problems of probability.”

Pierre Simon Laplace (1749 - 1827)

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“On voit, par cet Essai, que la théorie des probabilités n'est, au fond, que le bon sens réduit au calcul; elle fait apprécier avec exactitude ce que les esprits justes sentent par une sorte d'instinct, sans qu'ils puissent souvent s'en rendre compte.”

“One sees, from this Essay, that the theory of probabilities is basically just common sense reduced to calculus; it enables us to appreciate with exactness that which accurate minds feel with a sort of instinct, often without being able to account for it.”

Pierre Simon Laplace (1749 - 1827)

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Levels of Study in Probability Theory Probability theory is the branch of mathematics

devoted to analyzing problems of chance.

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Art of Guessing

1.

High School: classical

2.

Undergraduate: calculus

3.

Graduate: measure-theoretic

We are here!

More references Use ones that say probability

and random (or stochastic) processes If it has the word “statistics” in the title, it may not be rigorous enough for this class Many chapters will overlap our

class content. In which case, it provide a nice reading with beautiful/colorful figures.

If it has the word “measure” or

“ergodic” in there, it is probably too advanced.

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Recommended Reading Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in

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Everyday Life By Henk Tijms Call No. QA273 T48 2012 Cambridge University Press “Part One” provides many motivating examples and problems from everyday life “Part Two” teaches clearly and simply the mathematics of probability theory. Sample materials are available at the author’s website: http://personal.vu.nl/h.c.tijms/ http://www.cambridge.org/aus/catalogue/c atalogue.asp?isbn=9781107658561&ss=exc

2nd Edition (2007) 3rd Edition (2012)

Another Recommended Reading

The Drunkard's Walk The Drunkard's Walk: How

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Randomness Rules Our Lives By Leonard Mlodinow Deals with randomness and people's inability to take it into account in their daily lives. A bestseller, and a “NY Times notable book of the year” Named “one of the 10 best science books of 2008” on Amazon.com. [Thai Translation: ชีวิตนี้ ฟ้ าลิขิต: การสุ่มเลือก ควบคุมบัญชา ทุกเรื่องราวในชีวิตของเรา]

Leonard Mlodinow Euclid’s Window: the Story of Geometry

from Parallel Lines to Hyperspace Feynman’s Rainbow: a Search for Beauty in Physics and in Life A Briefer History of Time

with Stephen Hawking an international best-seller that has appeared in 25 languages.

The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives

Apart from books on popular science, he also has been a

screenwriter for television series, including Star Trek: The Next Generation and MacGyver.

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Watch Mlodinow’s talk Delivered to Google employees About his book (“The Drunkard's Walk”)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0sLuRsu1Do

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Examples Prelude to the Theory of Probability

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Game 1: Seven Card Hustle 22

The Seven Card Hustle Take five red cards and two black cards from a pack.

Ask your friend to shuffle them and then, without looking at the

faces, lay them out in a row.

Bet that they can’t turn over three red cards. Explain how the bet is in their favor. The first draw is 5 to 2 (five red cards and two black cards) in their

favor. The second draw is 4 to 2 (or 2 to 1 if you like) because there will be four red cards and two black cards left. The last draw is still in their favor by 3 to 2 (three reds and two blacks). The game seems heavily in their favor, but YOU, are willing to 23

offer them even money that they can’t do it!

The Seven Card Hustle Take five red cards and two black cards from a pack.

Ask your friend to shuffle them and then, without looking at the

faces, lay them out in a row.

Bet that they can’t turn over three red cards. Explain how the bet is in their favor. The game seems heavily in their favor,

but YOU, are willing to offer them even money that they can’t do it! Even odds or even money means 1-to-1 odds.

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[Lovell, 2006]

The Seven Card Hustle: Sol The correct probability that they can do it is 5 43 2 7 6 5 7

Do not worry too much about the math here. Some of you may be able to calculate the probability using knowledge from your high school years. We will review all of this later.

5 3 Alternatively, 5! 3! 4! 7 3! 2! 7! 3

1 5 4 3 765 2 7 25

[Lovell, 2006]

Game 2: Monty Hall Problem 26

Monty Hall Problem (MHP): Origin Problem, paradox, illusion Loosely based on the American television game show

Let’s Make a Deal. (Thai CH7 version: ประตูดวง.) The name comes from the show’s original host, Monty Hall. One of the most interesting mathematical brain teasers of recent times.

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Monty Hall Problem: Math Version Originally posed in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American

Statistician in 1975. A well-known statement of the problem was published in Marilyn vos Savant’s “Ask Marilyn” column in Parade magazine in 1990: “Suppose you're on a game show, and

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you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats.You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?”

Marilyn vos Savant Vos Savant was listed in each edition of the Guinness Book

of World Records from 1986 to 1989 as having the “Highest IQ.” Since 1986 she has written “Ask Marilyn” Sunday column in Parade magazine Solve puzzles and answer questions from readers

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[ http://www.marilynvossavant.com ]

MHP: Step 0 There are three closed doors. They look identical.

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MHP: Step 0 Behind one of the doors is the star prize - a car. The car is initially equally likely to be behind each door.

Behind each of the other two doors is just a goat.

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MHP: Step 1 Obviously we want to win the car, but do not

know which door conceals the car. We are asked to choose a door. That door remains closed for the time being.

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“Pick one of these doors”

MHP: Step 2 The host of the show (Monty Hall), who knows what is behind

the doors, now opens a door different from our initial choice. He carefully picks the door that conceals a goat.

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We stipulate that if Monty has a choice of doors to open, then he chooses randomly from among his options.

MHP: Step 3

“Do you want to switch doors?”

Monty now gives us the options of either 1. 2.

sticking with our original choice or switching to the one other unopened door.

After making our decision, we win whatever is behind our door.

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Monty Hall Problem Assuming that our goal is to maximize our chances of winning the car, what decision should we make? Will you do better by

sticking with your first choice, or

by switching to the other remaining door? Make no difference?

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Let’s play! 36

Interactive Monty Hall

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http://montyhallgame.shawnolson.net/ http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/ http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/applets/MontyHallGame.xhtml http://scratch.mit.edu/projects/nadja/484178 http://www.math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html

Interactive Monty Hall The New York Times’sVersion

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08monty.html 38

Back to the boring administrative stuff! 39

i Calendar Lecture Exam

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Please Double-Check Exam Dates!

M 11-Aug-13 18-Aug-13 25-Aug-13 1-Sep-13 8-Sep-13 15-Sep-13 22-Sep-13 29-Sep-13 6-Oct-13 13-Oct-13 20-Oct-13 27-Oct-13 3-Nov-13 10-Nov-13 17-Nov-13 24-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 8-Dec-13 15-Dec-13

T 12-Aug-13 19-Aug-13 26-Aug-13 2-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 16-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 30-Sep-13 7-Oct-13 14-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 4-Nov-13 11-Nov-13 18-Nov-13 25-Nov-13 2-Dec-13 9-Dec-13 16-Dec-13

W 13-Aug-13 20-Aug-13 27-Aug-13 3-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 17-Sep-13 24-Sep-13 1-Oct-13 8-Oct-13 15-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 5-Nov-13 12-Nov-13 19-Nov-13 26-Nov-13 3-Dec-13 10-Dec-13 17-Dec-13

R 14-Aug-13 21-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 4-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 18-Sep-13 25-Sep-13 2-Oct-13 9-Oct-13 16-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 6-Nov-13 13-Nov-13 20-Nov-13 27-Nov-13 4-Dec-13 11-Dec-13 18-Dec-13

F 15-Aug-13 22-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 5-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 19-Sep-13 26-Sep-13 3-Oct-13 10-Oct-13 17-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 7-Nov-13 14-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 28-Nov-13 5-Dec-13 12-Dec-13 19-Dec-13

i Grading System Coursework will be weighted as follows:

Assignments Class Participation and Quizzes Midterm Examination

5% 15% 40%

•7 Oct 2014 TIME 13:30 - 16:30

Final Examination (comprehensive)

40%

•16 Dec 2014 TIME 13:30 - 16:30

Mark your calendars now! Late HW submission will be rejected. 41

Please Double-Check Exam Days!

i Grading System

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2013: CLASS GPA: 2.86

2012: CLASS GPA: 2.86

2011: CLASS GPA: 2.74

2010: CLASS GPA: 2.74

i Class Participation NOT the same as class attendance! If you come only to receive, you will fall asleep. Do not simply sit quietly in the class.

Need interaction between lecturer and students.

Ask question when there is something that you don’t

understand. Don’t be shy! It is very likely that your friends don’t understand it as well.

If you already understand what I’m presenting, SHOW ME! Point out the errors/typos. I will raise many issues/questions in class. Try to comment on them. 43

i Class Participation (2) Record what you have done. Submitted before the midterm and before the final.

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Policy

Which clock?

We will start the class on time and will finish on time. I recommend arriving at least 3 minutes before the start time. Raise your hand and tell me immediately if I go over the time

limit. Does NOT mean that I will leave the room immediately after lecture. I will stay and answer questions.

Mobile phones must be turned off or set in silent mode. We may have some pop quizzes (without prior warning or

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announcement) and in-class activities. Attendance and pop quizzes will be taken/given irregularly and randomly. Cheating will not be tolerated.

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i Policy (con’t) Feel free to stop me when I talk too fast or too slow. I will surely make some mistakes in lectures / HWs /

exams. Some amount of class participation scores will be reserved to

reward the first student who inform me about each of these mistakes. Grammatical errors are best informed/corrected after class.

Points on quizzes/ exercises/ exams are generally based on

your entire solution, not your final answer. You can get full credit even when you have the wrong final

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answer. You may get zero even when you write down a right answer without justification.

i Policy (con’t) Please stop me if I go over the time limit. Please stop me if I talk too fast. Please stop me if you have any question.

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Help and Office Hours Get some help! Do not wait until the final exam time or after the grade is out. Right after lecture is always a good time to ask question.

Office Hours (BKD-3601) Time: Monday 14:00-16:00, Wednesday 14:40-16:00 Appointment can be made. Tutorial session can be arranged. Feel free to come to my office and chat! Don’t be shy.

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Warning This class is difficult. Keep up with the lectures. Make sure that you understand the concepts presented in the

lecture before you go home. I will evaluate your understanding of the course regularly

through In class problems/activities Quizzes

Exams

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Difficulty in ECS315 Combinatorics (counting) Solving word problems Not the main focus of this class but unavoidable if you want to

solve/consider interesting questions

Calculus Can be messy

Concept of probability Most students do not learn probability until two or three

exposures to it.

Large number of definitions, formulas and equations No need to remember a lot of formulas if you understand them 50

Prerequisite Working knowledge of calculus Some MATLAB skills for doing HWs and understanding in-

class demo Frequency domain analysis (Fourier transform) Bell curve

Soon, we will need to find

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1 2

e

x2 2

dx ?

1 x e 2 2

2

?

x

Tips Almost everything including what I have written on my

convertible tablet will be saved and posted on web soon after class. No need to take detailed lecture notes (if you don’t want to). Put all of your energy into understanding the material. Of course, there is always someone (in the class) who will take

good notes anyway and you can (potentially) borrow or make a copy of the notes from them. Have fun with the materials presented in class.

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Remarks Get as much legitimate help as you can

Participate actively in class and outside of class Record what you have done.

If you feel that the class is very easy, you might overlook

something. If you feel that the class is very difficult, you are probably not the only one who feel that way. Don’t give up. Chat with me. It takes me a long time to feel comfortable with these materials; yet, I

still make mistakes.

My notation can be different from the textbook. Every notation has some advantages and disadvantages. 53

Need More Examples or Practice? Textbook in the library: Schaum’s

outline of theory and problems of probability, random variables, and random processes / Hwei P. Hsu. Call No. QA273.25 H78 1997 Free pdf textbook: Introduction to Probability by Grinstead and Snell http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance /teaching_aids/books_articles/proba bility_book/book.html 54

Easier References For those who feels that this course is difficult, here are some easier references.

More beautiful pictures. Less technical. Less applicable for content after the midterm. 55

Monty Hall Problem: a short revisit Assuming that our goal is to maximize our chances of winning the car, what decision should we make? Will you do better by

sticking with your first choice, or

by switching to the other remaining door? Make no difference?

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Monty Hall Problem: vos Savant’s Answer

“You double your chances of winning by switching doors.”

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Monty Hall Problem: Controversy Approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs (many of them math

professors),

wrote to the magazine

claiming the published solution was wrong. “You blew it,” wrote a mathematician from George Mason

University. From Dickinson State University came this: “I am in shock that after being corrected by at least three mathematicians, you still do not see your mistake.” 58

[Mlodinow, 2008, p 42-45]

Controversy (2) From Georgetown: "How many irate mathematicians are

needed to change your mind?" And someone from the U.S. Army Research Institute remarked, "If all those Ph.D.s are wrong the country would be in serious trouble." When told of this, Paul Erdős, one of the leading mathematicians of the 20th century, said, "That's impossible." Then, when presented with a formal mathematical proof of the

correct answer, he still didn't believe it and grew angry. Only after a colleague arranged for a computer simulation in which Erdős watched hundreds of trials that came out 2-to-1 in favor of switching did Erdős concede that he was wrong. 59

Let’s learn some concepts so that we can analyze interesting examples!

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