RETAIL SALES SURVEI KONSUMEN SURVEY

Tim Statistik Sektor Riil 1 May 2007 SURVEI KONSUMEN Real sales growth both monthly and annually in May 2007 survey...

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RETAIL SALES SURVEY

SURVEI KONSUMEN May 2007

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Real sales growth both monthly and annually in May 2007 survey seemingly rose

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General price level in upcoming 3 and 6 months was apparently predicted to be steady, majority respondents revealed

Real Sales Real sales in May 2007 boosted up both monthly and annually

Real sales growth both monthly and annually was up levelling, retail sales survey in May 2007 which conducted in 5 cities stated. Annually real sales growth grew as 6.8%, down from previous survey (8.9%). From 9 stuff groups, there were 6 among them which underwent real sales ascend. The apparels group apparently was the group which had a significant real sales growth (43.0%) followed by construction material group (35.0%) and writing equipment group (28.2%). While the fuel group, chemicals group, and handicrafts, arts, and toys group underwent a decline as 23.8%, 4.3% and 1.6% respectively. Fuel group real sales have been declining since October 2006 and still not showing any good improvement until May 2007. Graph 1 Real Retail Sales Index Index 210,0 *) Preliminary figure 190,0 170,0 150,0 130,0 110,0 90,0 70,0 50,0 1 2005

2 3 4

5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 1 2006

2 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2 3 4 5*)

2007

Methodology Retail Sales Survey is a monthly survey to seek nominal sales value for certain items according to ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) of current month and its prediction for the following month. Respondents as sample panel comprised about 316 retailers located in Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya and Medan. The composite index construction is based on weighted-average of each classification. Real index calculation uses CPI as deflator of nominal index.

Tim Statistik Sektor Riil

1

On the monthly growth observation, real sales in May 2007 also indicated an increase. Monthly real sales growth rose as 4.2% while previous month growth declined as -2.8%. From 9 stuff groups, 7 groups among them scaled up in real sales. Those are food and tobacco group (9.8%), kept up by writing equipment group (9.7%), construction material group (8.7%), chemicals group (4.3%), motor vehicle spareparts group (3.3%), fuel group (2.3%) and apparels group (1.6%). Meantime, 2 groups that had through a decline in real sales were the household appliances (4.3%) and handicrafts, arts and toys group (0.2%). Table 1 Growth ( y-o-y ) of Retail Sales Real Index DESCRIPTION Food, beverages and tobacco Apparels Household appliances Chemicals Construction materials Fuels Writing equipment Motor vehicles spareparts Handicrafts, arts, and toys TOTAL INDEX

2006

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May*)

-19,1 -61,8 -27,6 -12,0 -44,2 8,7 2,8 -62,8 71,9

-23,4 -64,6 -27,8 -15,0 -39,3 28,0 -10,2 -62,5 114,6

-23,5 -64,4 -20,8 0,6 -32,2 11,1 -7,6 -47,7 180,1

-22,7 -64,5 -12,9 0,0 -27,6 4,4 -9,7 -82,6 175,8

-16,6 -51,5 -8,6 2,3 -26,9 11,7 12,5 -65,6 280,6

-10,3 -46,9 -15,0 16,4 -31,3 10,4 14,1 -69,2 339,4

-5,8 -45,2 2,8 24,0 -22,4 15,4 15,8 -46,5 323,2

-9,5 -47,1 7,0 4,8 -18,2 13,1 9,3 -42,9 298,1

1,2 21,4 15,7 7,0 -7,8 11,9 14,9 -40,6 293,4

16,2 117,6 7,8 12,4 3,4 -11,0 16,7 -20,0 263,4

-19,6 -19,2 10,4 3,7 28,3 -0,5 47,4 -27,7 185,1

4,1 2,5 33,7 -12,5 20,9 -8,5 27,0 -13,1 105,0

-3,1 45,9 23,0 4,5 17,4 -15,6 29,7 0,9 57,6

8,3 66,5 30,9 6,1 17,2 -19,7 52,1 -16,4 26,0

-1,2 76,9 23,0 5,0 39,8 -16,0 34,4 -9,6 12,3

2,1 73,6 24,1 -3,2 27,7 -19,5 30,9 22,4 2,5

10,9 43,0 16,6 -4,3 35,0 -23,8 28,2 18,0 -1,6

-23,7

-23,1

-16,4

-23,9

-9,8

-4,8

3,9

-1,2

17,7

35,3

5,4

10,1

11,5

13,2

10,7

8,9

6,8

* Preliminary figures

Table 2 Growth ( m-t-m ) of Retail Sales Real Index DESCRIPTION Food, beverages and tobacco Apparels Household appliances Chemicals Construction materials Fuels Writing equipment Motor vehicles spareparts Handicrafts, arts, and toys TOTAL INDEX

2006

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May*)

-3,4 -39,2 1,2 -22,9 -2,7 -2,2 -14,2 -12,8 12,8

-14,9 -9,3 -12,2 -8,9 0,1 -2,9 -16,4 18,2 18,3

9,1 -0,1 11,4 10,6 -3,0 7,0 25,1 -3,4 19,9

2,6 3,7 -0,7 0,1 4,3 -7,6 0,4 -25,1 0,1

1,2 23,3 1,8 5,4 2,7 8,0 12,0 7,2 4,0

1,4 -3,7 4,2 8,7 4,4 -5,3 7,4 -4,4 8,9

5,7 8,9 9,1 8,5 3,6 3,7 17,7 6,4 2,0

-6,7 1,2 0,5 -16,6 2,4 -2,6 -8,9 8,7 -5,1

6,1 37,1 2,4 3,7 2,1 -1,8 -6,8 -4,8 5,0

34,6 97,9 1,3 11,7 0,4 -7,2 0,6 7,2 25,2

-33,4 -52,7 -5,5 -15,7 12,3 4,2 14,7 0,2 -14,1

17,6 6,9 19,1 11,0 -6,0 -0,7 1,7 -3,9 3,5

-10,0 -13,5 -6,9 -8,0 -5,5 -9,8 -12,4 1,2 -13,3

-4,9 3,5 -6,6 -7,4 -0,1 -7,7 -2,0 -2,1 -5,5

-0,5 6,1 4,7 9,5 15,7 12,0 10,5 4,4 6,8

6,0 1,8 0,2 -7,8 -4,8 -11,4 -2,1 1,5 -8,6

9,8 1,6 -4,3 4,3 8,7 2,3 9,7 3,3 -0,2

-11,1

-5,7

9,0

-1,2

6,2

2,4

6,3

-5,4

6,1

26,0

-22,3

7,4

-10,0

-4,3

6,7

-2,8

4,2

* Preliminary figures

Table 3 Retail Sales Real Index by Categories DESCRIPTION Food and tobacco Apparels Household appliances Chemicals Construction materials Fuels Writing equipment Motor vehicles spareparts Handicrafts, arts, and toys TOTAL INDEX

2006

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

212,8 84,8 155,6 208,9 77,9 186,0 172,0 26,8 181,8

181,1 76,8 136,6 190,4 78,0 180,5 143,8 31,6 215,1

197,6 76,8 152,2 210,6 75,7 193,2 180,0 30,6 257,8

202,7 79,6 151,2 210,9 78,9 178,6 180,8 22,9 258,0

205,0 98,2 153,9 222,3 81,0 192,9 202,5 24,5 268,4

207,8 94,5 160,4 241,7 84,6 182,6 217,4 23,5 292,2

219,8 103,0 174,9 262,3 87,6 189,4 255,9 25,0 298,1

205,1 104,2 175,8 218,7 89,7 184,5 233,0 27,2 283,0

217,5 142,9 180,1 226,7 91,5 181,3 217,1 25,9 297,1

292,7 282,7 182,5 253,3 91,9 168,2 218,4 27,7 371,8

195,0 133,7 172,6 213,6 103,2 175,3 250,5 27,7 319,3

229,3 143,0 205,5 237,2 96,8 174,0 254,6 26,7 330,5

206,3 123,6 191,4 218,2 91,4 156,9 223,2 27,0 286,6

196,2 128,0 178,8 202,0 91,4 144,9 218,8 26,5 270,9

195,3 135,8 187,2 221,2 105,7 162,2 241,8 27,6 289,5

207,0 138,2 187,6 204,1 100,7 143,7 236,6 28,0 264,4

227,3 140,4 179,5 212,8 109,4 147,0 259,6 29,0 264,0

135,3

127,6

139,1

137,5

146,0

149,4

158,9

150,3

159,5

200,9

156,1

167,6

150,9

144,4

154,0

149,7

155,9

May*)

* Preliminary figures

Expectation on General Prices and Loan Interest Rates Price was predicted to rise for upcoming 3 and 6 months while loan interest rate apparently to be stable

Parts of respondents (retailers) still assumed that price increase in 3 and 6 months ahead (number of index were both 100 above) with rise tendency as 129.5 and 145.9, or higher than previous month (table 4). Yet, most of respondents as 67.2% and 52.8% still predicted price will seemingly stay at stable side in upcoming 3 and 6 months. Majority respondents thought loan interest rate will stay at same level in upcoming 3 and 6 months ( 76.4% and 75.6% respondents respectively). In net balance, loan interest rate in upcoming 3 and 6 months was still predicted to stay in pessimist level with stable tendency (index 90.5 and 95.9 respectively).

Tim Statistik Sektor Riil

2

Retail Sales Expectation Sales optimism in 3 and 6 months to come is going to rise, retailers prediction

Retailers stated the optimism in predicting that there will be a sales ascend both in 3 and 6 months to come. That optimism reflected from sales expectation index in upcoming 3 and 6 months lies above 100. In May 2007, sales expectation index in next 3 and 6 months were as 115.1 and 136.1. Table 4 Price, Interest Rate, and Sales Expectation 2006

VARIABEL Ekspektasi Harga Umum 3 bulan yad 6 bulan yad Ekspektasi Suku Bunga Kredit 3 bulan yad 6 bulan yad Ekspektasi Penjualan 3 bulan yad 6 bulan yad

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Mei

Jun

Jul

Agt

Sep

Okt

Nop

Des

Jan

138.9 130.7

121.8 132.8

125.8 140.5

115.4 131.8

123.5 130.9

127.1 139.2

136.0 132.2

133.6 126.1

136.2 134.7

125.9 128.0

135.0 136.3

Feb

Mar

Apr

135.5 134.5

131.3 140.7

125.2 137.9

124.8 139.0

126.6 138.6

129.5 145.9

106.9 112.5

112.1 105.8

102.2 105.6

91.7 94.5

95.7 97.1

87.2 95.0

75.8 86.3

93.8 96.3

94.7 100.0

85.0 87.9

85.2 89.1

90.5 95.3

87.2 89.9

87.1 93.2

100.7 99.0

90.3 94.6

90.5 95.9

120.8 137.1

112.8 129.4

122.1 134.2

128.9 126.3

127.1 113.6

125.4 123.4

128.6 122.2

120.5 118.5

126.1 119.6

116.4 128.2

117.9 130.6

118.6 135.3

114.9 129.7

118.8 131.8

115.1 136.1

Mei

Notes : Balance Score Method (net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the Price Expectation, Interest Rates Expectation, and Sales Expectation Indexes. When the index is above 100 point indicate an increase of Price, Interest Rates, and Sales, and vise versa.

Graph 2 Price Expectation and Actual Prices (%) 10,5

(Index ) 180 Price Ex pectation 3 months hence

170

9,0

Price Ex pectation 6 months hence

160

7,5

Actual Inflation

150

6,0

140

4,5

130

3,0

120

1,5

110

0,0

100

-1,5 6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1

2

3

4

5

2006

6

7

8

9

10

11

2007

Graph 3 Interest Rates Expectation and SBI Rates (Index ) 160

% Interest Rates Ex pectation 3 months hence

150 140

14,0

SBI (1 month)

13,0

130

12,0

120

11,0

110

10,0

100

9,0

90

8,0

80

7,0

70

6,0 6

7

8

9 2006

Tim Statistik Sektor Riil

15,0

Interest Rates Ex pectation 6 months hence

10

11

12

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2007

3

Retail Survey by Regions The The highest highest annually annually real sales salesgrowth growth was was occured in Bandung, occurred in Bandung and monthly was while highest monthly occured in Medan and sales growth occurred in Surabaya Semarang

Regionally, there were 3 of 5 cities surveyed had an annually real sales growth. Bandung still leading in contributing real sales increase with index 41.8%, followed by Medan (12.3%) and Semarang (10.6%). The apparels group still considered as the main factor of real sales increase in Bandung. Meantime, 2 cities which scaled down in real sales than that in previous survey are Surabaya and Jakarta (2.9% and 0.7% respectively). Monthly real sales in Semarang, Jakarta and Bandung rose as 6.9%, 5.3% and 1.0% respectively. While monthly real sales in Medan and Surabaya slipped away as 4.7% and 0.5% respectively. The food and tobacco group was apparently to be the key of increasing real sales in Semarang, while construction material group played role in Jakarta for the same reason. Table 5 Growth (y-o-y) of Index per City of Retail Sales Real DESCRIPTION

2006

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Des

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May*)

Jakarta Bandung Surabaya

-26,1 -29,5 -18,8

-30,8 -0,5 -20,0

-23,7 61,3 -15,2

-27,0 -14,5 -21,2

-13,3 40,8 -21,7

-7,0 40,2 -16,9

1,0 87,1 -16,3

-9,3 87,3 -17,5

15,4 113,6 -15,9

36,4 130,8 -11,8

-2,6 97,6 -5,1

-0,5 123,5 -6,2

-0,4 145,1 -6,2

2,6 103,2 -5,4

3,7 65,0 -9,3

2,0 49,8 -1,4

-0,7 41,8 -2,9

Medan Semarang

-7,1 -12,9

-7,1 4,2

-19,6 -20,4

-19,0 -21,5

-19,9 -20,4

-15,7 -11,5

-18,7 -21,4

-17,0 -16,8

-11,2 -12,3

-5,5 -11,0

-1,8 8,4

-2,4 -2,6

2,9 16,9

16,8 -11,6

12,1 16,8

17,7 10,7

12,3 10,6

-23,7

-23,1

-16,4

-23,9

-9,8

-4,8

3,9

-1,2

17,7

35,3

5,4

10,1

11,5

13,2

10,7

8,9

6,8

TOTAL INDEX

* Preliminary figures

Table 6 Growth (m-t-m) of Index per City of Retail Sales Real DESCRIPTION

2006

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Des

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May*)

Jakarta Bandung Surabaya

-12,5 -17,1 -0,6

-11,2 25,5 -2,1

10,9 25,2 1,2

-3,3 8,4 -6,5

8,2 6,7 1,0

2,2 9,2 0,7

9,5 2,3 0,7

-11,5 9,4 -0,6

7,2 13,7 0,0

36,9 13,6 -1,0

-32,8 -0,1 -0,6

13,0 -5,9 1,8

-12,4 -9,0 -0,6

-8,4 4,0 -1,2

12,0 1,7 -3,0

-4,9 -1,6 1,7

5,3 1,0 -0,5

Medan Semarang

-1,3 -2,9

-4,0 9,2

-5,0 -10,5

-0,9 -7,8

-0,1 6,9

-3,4 6,3

-2,8 -1,7

0,6 10,4

3,6 -0,4

10,1 -11,9

-0,5 25,0

2,5 -17,7

4,1 16,5

8,9 -17,4

-8,8 18,2

4,0 -12,7

-4,7 6,9

-11,1

-5,7

9,0

-1,2

6,2

2,4

6,3

-5,4

6,1

26,0

-22,3

7,4

-10,0

-4,3

6,7

-2,8

4,2

TOTAL INDEX

* Preliminary figures

Tim Statistik Sektor Riil

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